The Lancet Global Health Report

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According to the Lancet Global Health Report, HIV, TB and Malaria death rate may increase worldwide in low and middle-income countries.


  • The Lancet Global Health Report shows that low and middle-income countries could see a spike in HIV, TB and malaria case as much as 10, 20 and 36% respectively for the next 5 years.
  • This is due to the COVID-19 impact on health services.
  • The estimation of the researchers in areas affected heavily by these diseases maybe worst. This is due to the public health impact of Covid-19 on years of life lost.
  • In countries with a high malaria burden, large HIV and TB epidemics will have devastating consequences.
  • This can be avoided by taking preventive measures without any destructions and maintaining core services.
  • According to the health report, the malaria death rate have reduced by half since 2000. But in 2018, 94% of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa where claimed by malaria (380,000 lives).
  • The increase in the death rate is, as mosquitoes and parasites are gaining resistance against the treatment.
  • With the availability of antiretroviral therapy, HIV death rates globally have been halved. Again in 2019, 690,000 people died with HIV worldwide and the majority from LMICs.
  • Between 2000 and 2015, 49 million lives were saved through TB treatment. But in 2018, 1.8 million people died due to TB and 95% of the death rate is from LMICs.
  • Researchers used R0- a basic reproductive number of three to develop four different policy response scenarios to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • R0 represents the average number of people each individual who is likely to be infected with the disease.
  • The three scenarios are no action, mitigation- 45% of the reduction in R0 using physical distancing for six months, suppression- 75% of reduction in R0 for one year.
  • To estimate the additional impact on the health that caused due to the impact of COVID-19, researchers used the transmission models of HIV, TB and malaria.
  • The findings suggest that the pandemic impacts vary according to which the interventions against the activities of COVID-19 are distracted.
  • The greater impact will be on HIV if the supply and administration of ART are interrupted. In countries where HIV rates are high like southern Africa, the death rate may increase up to 10 % over the five years without any disruptions due to Covid-19.
  • Researchers suggest that the patients should receive ART multi-month prescriptions even in the period of highest health system demand.
  • The greatest impact for TB is estimated to be from reductions in the treatment and diagnosis of new cases due to COVID-19 containment measures.
  • The worst scenario is assuming the suppression in countries with a high burden. In African countries the death rate may increase to 20% over the next five years with the impact of pandemics.

The Lancet Global Health Report

  • The Lancet Global Health Report is a monthly medical journal and has open access with the free subscription.
  • The journal focuses on topics such as reproduction, maternal, child, neonatal, adolescent health, infectious diseases, global health system, health policy etc.
  • The journal aims to publish the best science to advance health in all regions of the world.

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