{"id":2039,"date":"2019-08-08T16:42:39","date_gmt":"2019-08-08T11:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.classiciasacademy.com\/blog\/?p=2039"},"modified":"2024-06-07T16:44:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T11:14:06","slug":"the-hindu-editorial-analysis-rbis-goldilocks-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.classiciasacademy.com\/blog\/the-hindu-editorial-analysis-rbis-goldilocks-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hindu Editorial Analysis : RBI\u2019s Goldilocks Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context:&nbsp; <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>RBI has delivered a cut of 35 basis points in\nthe benchmark repo rate in its monetary policy announcement.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Important Factors behind the huge cut:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Low GDP growth rate: <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The GDP growth rate for the financial year 2018\nwas very low at 7.2%. <strong>The earlier forecast of the growth rate of 7.0% for\nthe financial year 2019 is revised to 6.9% by the Reserve Bank of India.<\/strong> <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is an economic slowdown at the global\nlevel amid the rising trade tensions. The economic activity at home also stays\nweak.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The primary reason behind the slow growth is low\ndemand, the slowdown of investment and consumption. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Benign inflationary trends:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>The benign inflationary trends are chiefly seen\nin food products. They involve increasing fuel prices while the food prices\ntend to remain low or constant. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The benign inflationary trends are\ndefined by the following characteristics in an economy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>Depreciation of the currency.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increasing current account deficit. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiscal deficit targets are not being met.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Downgraded NPAs in the financial sector.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why 35 base points and not 25 or 50?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Low inflation is addressed with cuts in repo\nrate by the central bank. The repo rate is usually cut by 25 base points or the\nmultiples of 25. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Surprisingly enough, this time the RBI Monetary\nPolicy Committee decided a rate cut of 35 base point in the benchmark repo rate.\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This, however, can be explained by the present\neconomic conditions <strong>where the rate cut of 25 bps would be too low and 50 bps\ntoo huge. Hence a moderate 35 bps is agreed upon by the MPC. <\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>From earlier 5.75 percent, now the repo rate\nstands at 5.40%, touching the lowest in nine years. Since February, the RBI has\ncut rates in consecutive four policies. This in total amounts to 110 basis\npoints.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The impact of rate cuts on lending rate:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Against RBI&#8217;s 75 bps cut from February to\nJuly this year, the banks could decrease their lending rates only by 29 bps<\/strong>,\nwhich is disappointing. The unusual 35 bps rate cut is proposed to reduce the lending\nrates at a quicker pace. This move will also ensure price stability in the\neconomy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How will the rate cut incentivize investment?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Investment relies on &#8220;real&#8221;\ninterest rate which is the difference between repo rate and retail inflation.<\/strong>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In India, the real investment rate has been very\nhigh and yet continuously rising. By current rate cut of 35 bps, the interest\nrate would be reduced which will provide a much-needed boost to investment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Economic slowdown: Structural or Cyclical?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Structural changes are long term changes in the\neconomy, they require introducing policy reforms whereas cyclical changes are\nrelatively temporary in nature and can be dealt with by bringing short term\nchanges in the spending habits of the government and changing the tax rate<\/strong>s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>According to the experts, <strong>the current\neconomic situation is a hybrid of both-structural as well as cyclical,<\/strong>\nhence, it must be treated as such.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Since the current slowdown in the economy is\npartly cyclical and partly structural, <strong>the drastic cut in the repo rate,\nalthough a needed step, cannot fix the slow growth rate alone.<\/strong> The\nsituation also demands a government response in terms of policy reforms. &nbsp;Therefore, the government must unleash major\nreform changes else the decision of the Reserve Bank will not be fruitful.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Context:&nbsp; Important Factors behind the huge cut: Low GDP growth rate: Benign inflationary trends: The benign inflationary trends are defined by the following characteristics in <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.classiciasacademy.com\/blog\/the-hindu-editorial-analysis-rbis-goldilocks-cut\/\" title=\"The Hindu Editorial Analysis : RBI\u2019s Goldilocks Cut\">    [read more]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2040,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[170],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - 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